Cautiously Optimistic Election News from my Alma Mater

Well, ya just never know where a tidbit of election info would come from. Here in my inbox this morning was a newsletter from my alma mater, the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, College of LAS.

And therein is a link to this article: Kerry vs. Bush-- Past voting patterns give the edge to the Democrats this November. So it seems that one Professor Peter Nardulli has spent the last 20 years of his life analyzes state-wide elections from 1828 to 2000. The conclusion is...

According to Nardulli, the Democrats have not begun a presidential campaign in such a strong position since 1944.

“Practically speaking, all the Democrats need do is win the states in which they have a meaningful normal vote advantage to capture the presidency,” says Nardulli. “If the Democrats can do this they need not win any Southern states in which the Republicans hold an electoral edge, including Florida.”

Moreover, even if Ralph Nader matches his state-level returns from 2000, this by itself will not be enough to overcome the Democrats' electoral advantage in states that are essential to attaining an Electoral College majority.

The Democrats enjoyed such a strong starting position in the 2004 campaign because of the cumulative effects of gradual shifts in normal voting patterns across a wide swath of states outside the South. These trends began in the 1970s, Nardulli says, and “have eroded what once were sizeable Republican electoral advantages in a number of key states.”

“At the national level, the net electoral effect of these gradual shifts is comparable to most critical realignments in U.S. electoral history. Comparable periods of secular change benefited the Republicans in the first quarter of the 20th century and between 1932 and 1976."

Not all is rosy, however, for the Dems:

But does this mean that the Democrats have the 2004 election “sewed up?”

“Absolutely not,” says Nardulli. “The Democrats' edge in the size and distribution of their electoral base does not mean they have a lock on this election. Electoral upsets such as those that occurred in 1912, 1916, and 1976 demonstrate that even overwhelming normal vote advantages do not guarantee electoral victory. State normal vote advantages simply provide parties with ‘comfort margins' that help them deal with election-specific departures from normal voting patterns that are driven by such factors as increases in unemployment, inflation, or crime. Or scandals such as the Teapot Dome Scandal, Watergate, Iran-Contra, and the Monica Lewinsky affair.”

Given all the current efforts in voter registration, which seem to be favoring the Democrats, this is cause for hope. Visit Peter Nardulli's web site for more info.